Rajasthan’s 2024 Lok Sabha Elections: A Shift in Dynamics
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan have marked a potential turning point for the state’s political landscape. After two consecutive terms dominated by the BJP and the NDA, the Congress is now optimistic about breaking its 10-year dry spell in the state.
The election dynamics have shifted from the traditional focus on national issues and the cult of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a more localized narrative, with caste politics playing a significant role in key constituencies.
Challenges for BJP
The BJP, while still formidable, faces challenges in several constituencies, with the Congress posing a credible threat in at least half of the seats. The drop in polling during the first phase and concerns over the BJP’s performance have added to the party’s worries. Modi’s polarizing speeches in Rajasthan, particularly targeting the Congress and referring to Muslims, reflect the intense battle unfolding in the state.
The Congress, buoyed by the opportunity and having nothing to lose, is strategically navigating alliances and local dynamics. However, organizational shortcomings and uncertainties, such as the failure to field top leaders like Ashok Gehlot, Sachin Pilot, and Govind Singh Dotasra, may hinder its performance. The party’s inability to solidify alliances smoothly, as seen with the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) in Banswara, underscores its challenges.
Key Constituencies
1. Barmer-Jaisalmer: The contest here revolves around incumbent Union Minister Kailash Choudhary facing challenges from Independent candidate Ravindra Bhati and Congress’s Ummeda Ram Beniwal, highlighting deep-seated caste divisions.
2. Jalore: Former CM Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav’s candidacy against BJP’s Lumbaram Choudhary underscores the high stakes, with Gehlot Senior’s aggressive campaigning aiming to counter the “outsider” tag.
3. Jodhpur: Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat’s stronghold faces scrutiny over rural issues despite his ministerial position, intensifying the battle against Karan Singh Uchiyarda.
4. Kota: Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla confronts accusations of being inaccessible, challenged by BJP rebel-turned-Congress candidate Prahlad Gunjal, amidst anti-incumbency sentiments.
5. Tonk- Sawai Madhopur: BJP’s Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria faces a tough fight from Congress’s Harish Chandra Meena, highlighting communal dynamics and the influence of prominent leaders.
6. Chittorgarh, Pali, Jhalawar Baran: BJP incumbents seem comfortably positioned, leveraging strongholds and party narratives to maintain dominance.
7. Ajmer: The Jat vs. Jat dynamic sees a divergence from the broader trend, with Jats leaning towards BJP’s Bhagirath Choudhary.
In Churu, the voter turnout on April 19 stood at approximately 64%, ranking as the second-highest among the 12 seats that participated in the first phase, surpassing the state average by 6 percentage points.
The electoral contest transformed into a clash between Congress candidate Rahul Kaswan and former MLA Rajendra Rathore, a supporter of the BJP candidate, leading to a caste-based conflict between Jats and Rajputs.
Kaswan, the incumbent BJP MP, was replaced by Paralympic gold medallist Devendra Jhajharia by the BJP, with Kaswan alleging Rathore’s influence on this decision due to their past political rivalry.
Exploiting the opportunity, the Congress recruited Kaswan and nominated him from Churu, with much of his criticism directed towards Rathore rather than Jhajharia. Despite Prime Minister Modi’s rally in the region, uncertainty shrouds the outcome of the election.
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Initially perceived as heavily tilted in favor of BJP’s Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the electoral battle in Jodhpur has become much tighter due to factors such as anti-incumbency stemming from Shekhawat’s ten-year tenure as MP, strained relationships with local lawmakers, and a Rajput contender in the form of Congress’s Karan Singh Uchiyarda. Uchiyarda, a first-time contestant, has centered his campaign on unfulfilled promises by Shekhawat, particularly regarding providing piped water to the region’s parched households.
With the elections approaching on April 26, Shekhawat has attempted to frame the contest as a crusade to safeguard ‘sanatan dharma’ (eternal principles) and protect national borders. However, the outcome hinges on the voting preferences of influential Rajputs and Bishnois. While pollsters still favor Shekhawat, his lead might be narrower, with his opponent presenting a formidable challenge.
Rajasthan’s 2024 Lok Sabha elections signify a departure from previous patterns, with localized issues and caste considerations shaping the electoral landscape. While the BJP retains its stronghold in certain areas, the Congress’s strategic maneuvering and localized alliances pose a significant challenge. The outcome of these elections could potentially redefine the state’s political trajectory, indicating broader shifts in regional politics.
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