The counting of votes for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 commenced at 8 am on June 4, 2024. With 542 seats up for grabs, all attention is focused on whether the exit poll predictions will materialize, potentially leading to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) securing a historic third consecutive term. For a party or coalition to form the government at the center, it must win at least 272 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. With one seat already secured by the NDA in Surat, the outcome of 542 seats will be decided today.
If victorious, Narendra Modi will be the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms, marking a significant milestone in Indian political history.
The Election Process in 2024
The 2024 general elections involved an extensive voting process. Polling took place in seven phases from April 19 to June 1, making it the second-longest election period after the first parliamentary elections in 1951-52. Announced by the Election Commission on March 16, the entire electoral process spanned 82 days, culminating in the vote count on June 4.
Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar highlighted the participation of 96.8 crore eligible voters, emphasizing the magnitude of the world’s largest democratic exercise. To administer the elections, 1.5 crore polling officials were deployed across 10.5 lakh polling stations, ensuring the smooth conduct of the electoral process.
Exit Poll Predictions and NDA’s Prospects
Most exit polls have forecasted a decisive victory for the NDA, led by Prime Minister Modi. Projections suggest that the coalition could secure over 350 seats. Notably, three major exit polls—India Today-My Axis India, India TV-CNX, and News24-Todays Chanakya—predict the NDA will win over 400 seats. This has fueled the BJP’s confidence, leading them to prepare for celebratory events. On the other hand, the Opposition’s INDIA bloc has dismissed these exit polls, maintaining hope for a different outcome.
ALSO READ: Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6
Uttar Pradesh Emerges as Key Battleground
Uttar Pradesh, the crucial state that sends 80 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha, is proving to be a game changer as official trends from the Election Commission of India indicate a strong performance by the INDIA alliance. Currently, the Samajwadi Party is leading in 34 seats, while the Congress is ahead in 7. Conversely, the BJP, which was expected to win overwhelmingly in Uttar Pradesh, is leading in 36 seats. The NDA alliance partner, RLD, is ahead in two important seats in Western Uttar Pradesh. After an initial scare, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is leading in Varanasi, but Smriti Irani is trailing by over 50,000 votes.
Modi’s anticipated landslide fails as BJP is set to lose its outright majority
Early trends from India’s ongoing election count suggest Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s NDA alliance is falling well short of expectations, as the opposition INDIA bloc performs much better than projected in exit polls.
After around eight hours of counting, Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Party-led alliance was ahead in around 294 seats, maintaining a lead of just over 60 seats ahead of the opposition INDIA alliance.
This indicates that Modi’s alliance is on course to win more than the 272 seats needed to form a majority, but the BJP is likely to fall short of an outright majority and far short of the party’s performance in 2019.
Until recently, Modi had boasted that his BJP-led alliance would win more than 400 seats. The initial election results have spooked India’s financial markets, which had expected a hefty win for Modi. The prime minister is seen as being pro-market and his decade in power has corresponded with huge increases in wealth for the business elite of the country.
Speculations on 2024 Results: BJP-led NDA vs. INDIA Bloc
The final phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections concluded recently, and major exit polls have suggested a clear win for the BJP-led NDA at the Centre. The India Today-My Axis poll and Today’s Chanakya forecast that the NDA could surpass 400 seats, while ABP-Voter projected 353-383 seats, and Jan Ki Baat anticipated a tally between 362-392 seats. These predictions, if accurate, would indicate an even stronger mandate for the BJP compared to the 2019 elections.
However, the actual results of the vote count will ultimately determine the victor. Despite the exit polls favoring the NDA, the INDIA bloc remains hopeful for a different outcome, awaiting the final vote tally to reveal the true sentiment of the electorate.
As the counting of votes for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 progresses, the political landscape of India stands on the brink of a potential historic shift. The BJP-led NDA, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, appears poised to secure a third consecutive term, as predicted by multiple exit polls. Yet, the definitive results will soon unfold, revealing whether the exit poll predictions hold true or if the opposition’s INDIA bloc has managed to make significant inroads. With the world’s largest democracy watching closely, the fate of India’s governance for the next five years will be determined by the end of the day.
